Braemar Gives LNG Shipping Market Analysis at LISW

Experts from Braemar LNG Group gave a full audience a truncated overview relating the technical, commercial and market trends of the often very complex world of LNG shipping.

Andy Bright, Director, (Braemar Engineering) concentrated on the advanced technology and very precise engineering requirements around containment systems and propulsion options. Bright also said that the group was in advanced stages of approval for a new containment system designed by Braemar, particularly suited to small scale LNG including bunkering although not size limited.

Andrew Selby Bennett, (Commercial LNG Shipping, Braemar ACM London) focused on the relevance of the technical specifications to the commercial decisions, demonstrating the importance to the value of the speed and consumption on the differing types of 125-175,000 cubic metre vessels.

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Container Ship Order Book Drops To 20% Of The Trading Fleet As New Deliveries Surge

The ratio of container TEU capacity on-order compared to the trading fleet dropped below 20% in June, reports Braemar Seascope. The broker advises that, as the container industry is expected to take delivery of record volumes of TEU capacity this year, the order book to trading ratio has eroded to approximately 20% in June 2013.

Jonathan Roach, Container Market Analyst at Braemar Seascope, said: “With more than 1.7m TEU expected to be delivered in 2013, the ratio is set to fall to approximately 16% by the end of the year. During the six year ordering boom between 2003 and 2008, in the region of 10.0m TEU of containership capacity was ordered. The order book ratio peaked at approximately 60% in 2007, when in excess of 3.0m TEU was ordered. In the five years since the global financial crisis, vessel ordering has declined; from 2009 to 2013, we estimate that just 4.0m TEU will be added to the order book.”

He added: “Even though ship finance has become more difficult to secure since the 2008 banking crisis, new orders have increased in 2013 and the new building market certainly has not collapsed – rather new building activity is ticking over with selective and niche container ship ordering.

“This year to date, we have noted 80 container ship orders with a combined capacity of 580,000 TEU. In the corresponding period in 2012, only half that number of ships was contracted, with a combined TEU capacity of 230,000 TEU. Even with underwhelming global container demand seen in 2012 and a similar growth pattern expected this year, new orders are still materialising as shipyards reduce new-building prices in a strategy to bolster and maintain their forward cover.

Braemar Seascope Opens New Oslo Office

Braemar Seascope is pleased to announce that it is further strengthening its shipbroking division by opening a new tanker chartering office in Oslo. This follows the recent establishment of a deep sea tanker chartering desk in Houston.

The Oslo office will focus on the specialised tanker sector forming part of Braemar’s existing specialised team of 14 brokers. It will be led by Joachim Hagen-Hansen who will commence broking within the next three months. The office will be opened by Eirik Hagen with effect from 6 May.

James Kidwell, CEO of Braemar Shipping Services Plc, commented: “We are delighted to welcome two brokers of the calibre of Joachim and Eirik and to have the opportunity to extend our commitment in this important sector. They will develop our client services and market coverage in an exciting way.”

Uncertainty Reigns In Newbuilding Sector Says Braemar Seascope

Uncertainty still reigns true in the global shipbuilding sector with many factors influencing either a return to ordering activity or a continuation of the reduction in interest in newbuildings.

“The best case scenario for shipbuilders is for ship finance liquidity to return and for a cut in Chinese overcapacity. There needs to be renewed interest in eco-designs and ships with options such as LNG or Ballast Water Treatment Systems and then possibly any increased demand will support pricing from the shipyards’ point of view,” said Mark Williams, Research Director at Braemar Seascope.

The worst case scenario is for a continuation in the global credit crunch; weak freight markets continuing to suppress newbuilding demand; input costs and forex turning against the builders; the low point in the contracting cycle extending and also more cash flow problems and failures.

“Investors are unlikely to invest in new tonnage this year without a fair prospect of economic return even if there is a short term recovery in freight markets, with many believing more needs to be done to encourage a return in confidence in the newbuilding sector,” Mr Williams told delegates attending the latest Marine Money conference.

While higher scrap prices should encourage owners to renew their fleets, the ongoing credit crunch and weak freight markets are reducing the economic life of today’s ships, which are now depreciating to scrap value in their teenage years or early twenties.

Mark Williams said that newbuilding prices tended to follow demand with input costs only providing a floor which can be broken through. “When the global shipbuilding backlog is less than about 18 months, yards tend to cut prices for competitive advantage, however prices appear to be bottoming out. There is far too much shipbuilding capacity out there. 2012 was the peak delivery year since the mid-1970s. So it is a question of who will blink first.”

Appointment Of Finance Director

Braemar Shipping Services plc (“Braemar” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce the appointment of Martin Beer as Finance Director, with effect from 15th October 2012. James Kidwell, CEO, will hand over his responsibilities as Finance Director on that date.

Martin, age 50, previously spent 21 years at Uniq Plc (formerly Unigate plc), where he was Finance Director from 2002. He qualified as an accountant while with PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

James Kidwell, Braemar’s CEO says: “I am delighted that Martin has accepted this appointment and I look forward to working with him in the years ahead.”

The Company confirms that there are no further details to disclose under paragraph 9.6.13 of the Listing Rules in relation to Martin Beer.

Braemar Shipping Services plc: Changes to the Executive Board of Directors of the Company and Interim Management Statement

Changes to the Executive Board
The board of Braemar Shipping Services PLC (“Braemar”, “the Group” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce the appointment of James Kidwell as Chief Executive with effect from today. James Kidwell, age 50, is Group Finance Director and has worked for Braemar in that role since June 2002.

He succeeds Alan Marsh, who will retire as chief executive today and from the board on 31st July 2012. Alan Marsh has, however, agreed to continue to play an active role in the Shipbroking division. In addition, Quentin Soanes, following his appointment as Chairman of the Baltic Exchange, will also retire from the board on 31st July 2012 but will remain responsible for the Group’s Technical, Logistics and Environmental divisions.

Denis Petropoulos continues as group regional director – Singapore, and executive director of Braemar Shipping Services PLC. He is based in Singapore and is also responsible for Braemar’s development and marketing initiatives in the East.

Sebastian Davenport-Thomas becomes managing director of the Shipbroking division, having been head of its sale and purchase department for the past five years.

The Group will appoint a new finance director in due course and in the meantime James Kidwell will retain these responsibilities in addition to his new role.

The Chairman of Braemar, Sir Graham Hearne said: “Alan has led Braemar, as a public company, for 11 years with great distinction and has been a significant force in taking the Group to where it is today. We are indebted to him for his enormous contribution and I am delighted that he will still be actively involved in our Shipbroking division.”

“Quentin will also take this opportunity to retire from the board after more than 30 years service with Braemar. He has been highly instrumental in the development of the marine and energy services businesses in the Group which will continue to be his primary responsibility. We would like to wish him every success in his role as Chairman of the Baltic Exchange.”

“Braemar is doing well in very challenging markets and in James Kidwell we have appointed a top class executive who has over the years developed a deep understanding of all aspects of the business. I have no doubt James will bring the leadership and expertise to maintain our success and manage the next phase of Braemar’s growth.”

Braemar’s outgoing chief executive, Alan Marsh, said: “It is with some sadness that I have decided, as I approach my 63rd birthday, that this is the time to retire from a role that I have much enjoyed. I am confident that James will be an outstanding successor, and I look forward to continuing to contribute to the Group’s success.”

The company’s new chief executive, James Kidwell, added: “I am looking forward to the challenge of building on the Group’s positive momentum. Braemar is a dynamic business, and we have a strong team of people who together offer great potential for the future.”

Interim Management Statement

This Interim Management Statement covers the first quarter of the financial year beginning 1 March 2012.

Tanker chartering and dry bulk freight rates have been relatively weak because of the imbalance in tonnage supply in most markets. However, our transaction volumes have continued to grow steadily and there are some areas – in particular in specialised tankers – where we have developed significant new business. Our offices in Australia and India, which are predominantly dry bulk, have also made a bright start to the year.

The second-hand sale and purchase market has seen higher activity in recent months. After a period of greater price stability there has been more serious buying interest especially from the more traditional family shipowning companies.

The Technical division has made a strong start particularly Braemar Offshore, our surveying and engineering business in the Far East. Braemar Engineering has won some good LNG supervision business which will improve its performance in the second half and Braemar Casbarian is seeing more activity in its prime market – the Gulf of Mexico.

The Logistics division is performing well with both UK and Singapore ship agency business gaining ground.

The Environmental division has had a strong first quarter continuing in the same vein as the final quarter of last year with its clear-up work on the MV RENA off the coast of New Zealand which commenced in October 2011. Activity on the project is likely to slow in the second half as the wreck removal gets underway.

Overall the performance of the Group is in line with the board’s expectations.

ENDS

For further information, contact:
Braemar Shipping Services
Alan Marsh Tel +44 (0) 20 7535 2650
James Kidwell Tel +44 (0) 20 7535 2881

Pelham Bell Pottinger
Damian Beeley
Zoe Pocock Tel +44 (0) 20 7861 3139
Tel +44 (0) 20 7861 3961

Elaborate Communications
Sean Moloney Tel +44 (0) 1296 682356

Westhouse Securities

Dermot McKechnie Tel +44 (0) 20 7601 6115
Henry Willcocks Tel +44 (0) 20 7367 9052

Notes to editors
Braemar Shipping Services plc is a leading international provider of broking, consultancy, technical and other services to the shipping, marine and energy industries. The business is organised into the following segments: Shipbroking, Technical, Logistics and Environmental. It is listed on the Official List of the London Stock Exchange in the Industrial Transport sector.

Principal businesses:

Shipbroking
Braemar Seascope provides chartering, sale and purchase and consulting shipbroking services to international ship owners, charterers and financial institutions operating in the tanker, gas, chemicals, offshore, container and dry bulk markets. There are shipbroking offices in the UK, China, Australia, Singapore, India, Italy and Monaco.
www.braemarseascope.com

Technical
Braemar’s Technical division provides a range of specialist marine services to the maritime sector. The business operates under the brand name Braemar Technical Services and the activities of the division are as follows:

– Braemar Adjusting provides specialist loss adjusting and other expert services to the energy (oil and gas), marine, power and other related industrial sectors. It has offices in London, Houston, Singapore, Calgary, and Rio de Janeiro.

– Braemar Offshore provides specialised marine and offshore services mainly performing pre-risk marine warranty surveys. It has offices in the UK, Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.

– Braemar incorporating The Salvage Association (“Braemar SA”) provides marine consultancy and surveying services to the shipping, energy, offshore and insurance industries. The Salvage Association was acquired on 9 May 2011 and it has a network of offices in Asia, Europe and the US that undertake marine damage surveys for the insurance industry.

– Braemar Engineering provides consultant marine engineering and naval architecture services to the shipping and offshore markets from offices throughout the Far East and London. Braemar Engineering was expanded with the acquisition of Braemar Casbarian in July 2011 which provides consulting engineering services mainly to the offshore industry in the Gulf of Mexico from offices in New Orleans, Houston and Trinidad.

www.braemar.com

Logistics
Cory Brothers Shipping Agency provides port agency, freight forwarding and logistics services within the UK and Singapore.
www.cory.co.uk

Environmental
Braemar Howells provides pollution response and advisory services primarily in the UK and Africa and is continuing to develop an international presence. It has earned an international reputation for its work for the insurance industry in handling the containers from stricken vessels – the MSC Napoli in 2007 and the RENA which is on-going in New Zealand.
www.braemarhowells.com

Asia-Europe Trade Takes New Boxship Capacity

Asia-Europe trade has soaked up the majority of new boxship capacity over the past two years, according to leading international shipbroker Braemar Seascope, which reports that 56% of new boxship capacity delivered was deployed on Asia – Europe and Asia – Mediterranean trades.

Over the past two years 2.6m teu of fully cellular newbuilding capacity has been delivered.
The vast majority of these newbuildings joined main line Asia – Northern Europe and Asia – Mediterranean trades. During the years 2010 and 2011, Braemar Seascope estimates that in the region of 1.5m teu, accounting for more than half of all newbuilding capacity entering service, was initially deployed on those east-west trade lanes.

During 2011, 59 post panamax containerships, with an average capacity of 11,500 teu, entered Asia-Europe services, adding 680,000 teu of fresh capacity. Additionally, 15 containerships of an average 8,400 teu were delivered and deployed on Asia – Mediterranean and a developing Asia – Middle East trade lane, adding more than 125,000 teu of new capacity.

A trade lane of noticeable deployment growth over the past two years is the Asia- East Coast South America route, which recorded approximately 40 newbuildings enter service, including some comparatively high reefer capacity vessels exceeding 7,000 teu nominal capacity which were introduced by Maersk Line and Hamburg Sued. In 2011, this emerging Latin American container route accounted for more than 10% of all new capacity commissioned.

Another developing container trade lane, Asia – West Africa, witnessed deployment of 11 newbuildings last year, including the first of a newbuilding series of 22 x 4,500 teu geared vessels designed specifically for the growing trade between West Africa and Asia.

Jonathan Roach, Senior Container Analyst at Braemar Seascope, said: “For the next three years going forward we expect another four million teu to hit the water, which includes approximately 150 containerships with a nominal capacity of 10,000 teu or more.”

Braemar Market Insight: Changing Face of VLCC Spot Market

With so much discussion of the poor freight rates available to VLCC owners hiring their ships out for voyages from the Middle East to major consumers east and west, it is informative to see how much the spot market for VLCCs has changed in just a few years.

Since 2005, there has been a 25% reduction in reported AG/West spot VLCC voyages from 291 in 2005 to 216 in 2011. Just 11 AG/West fixtures were recorded in January 2012; if annualised the total would be 180, only 62% of the number recorded in just seven years earlier.

The US, the world’s largest oil consumer and traditionally the major customer for Middle Eastern oil, has diversified its supplies of energy with important effects for the VLCC market. The reasons for this diversification are complex and reflect not only market evolution, but changes to US economic, fiscal, environmental, and foreign policy.

According to the latest US Energy Information Agency (EIA), domestic crude oil production up reversed a long-term decline to grow from 5.18million barrels per day (m bpd) in 2005 to 5.47m bpd in 2010. Meanwhile, oil imports from Canada rose from 1.6m bpd in 2005 to 1.97m bpd in 2010.

More locally-produced oil will replace long-haul oil in a shrinking marketplace: the EIA 2012 Early Release Overview forecasts a 0.5% annual reduction in energy consumption per capita in the US between 2010 and 2035.

Meanwhile, high gasoline prices in the US have led to a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel demand, with the US becoming a net petroleum products exporter for the first time in 2011 since the late 1940s.
Despite overseas demand for petroleum products refined in the US, a number of East Coast refineries have closed, if they rely on imported crude, as these cannot compete with US Gulf refiners with access to cheaper West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
China meanwhile has become the world’s second largest consumer of oil and, with an extensive refinery building programme underway, is in line to match US oil consumption within the current decade.
Consequently, the VLCC spot market has swung eastwards; in 2005, 20% of VLCC spot fixtures discharged in China; in January 2012, that had increased to 40%. Chinese oil refiners have swept into leading positions in the VLCC charter market. Discharges east of Suez now account for 85% of VLCC voyages out of the AG compared to 71% in 2005.
Mark Williams, Braemar Seascope research director, believes this swing to the East is now firmly entrenched. He says, “As Chinese refiners will probably add over 6m bpd of domestic refinery capacity in the next five years, their presence in the VLCC spot market is likely to increase further as China makes efforts to secure its energy supplies.”

Is Another Demolition Spike Due? Asks Braemar Seascope

As the Baltic
Dry Index plumbs all-time depths, those with long memories are recalling the
dark days of the 1980s for the shipping markets.  However, steel traders can look forward to a
bumper year of supply of vessels for recycling this year, if previous
experience offers a guide for the 2012 outlook. Bets are now being taken about
how many vessels will be forced by the weak freight markets into the arms of
recyclers.

 

Globally, ship
scrapping capacity has very big limits being a simple business of driving ships
onto beaches and cutting them up with oxyacetylene torches. Theoretically,
great numbers of ships could be sold for scrap and held as inventory by the
scrap dealers, to be pushed up the beach as and when required. Scrap prices for
ships of around USD $500 per light displacement tonne (LDT) remain, suggesting
that demand for the steel content in ships remains strong.

 

Meanwhile,
ship recycling capacity could grow further in coming years. The China State
Shipbuilding Corporation President said recently that half of China’s shipyards
could go bust in the next two to three years. Many of these yards could switch
to recycling as, theoretically, could European shipyards, though the economics
of recycling in Europe are currently not encouraging.

 

Braemar
Seascope estimates that,  in 2011, 24.2m
dwt of bulk carriers were sold for scrap, surpassing the 12.0m dwt scrapped in
2009 during the credit crunch, and the 11.5m dwt scrapped in 1998 after the
Asian financial crisis, as well as the 15.0m dwt scrapped in 1986, the year the
BIFFEX bottomed out at 554 points on 31 July. 
2011 was not a record-breaking year for tanker recycling despite the
poor freight markets.  For four years
from 1982 to 1985 over 20m dwt of tankers were recycled while 14m dwt was sold
for demolition in 2010. Last year saw 8.4m dwt of tankers recycled, with the
figure for January 2012 maintaining the trend.

 

Scrapping of
all types reached 41m dwt in 2011, making it the third biggest year for
demolition ever. The second biggest 1986 when 43m dwt was scrapped, and the
biggest ever was 1985 with 44m dwt sent to the beaches. Mark Williams, Braemar
Seascope research director in London, said: “If macro-economic conditions in
2012 continue to underwhelm and if scrap prices stay at their recent high
levels, this year could easily surpass 1985 as a peak year for demolition.”

Braemar Shipping Services Launches Braemar Technical Services

Braemar Shipping Services plc’s penetration of the global marine and offshore services sectors continues to develop with the bringing together of its business units under the umbrella control of the Braemar Technical Services (BTS) division.

As was set in train with the results’ announcement in May 2011, BTS will bring a broader service as well as operating efficiency benefits to customers of its technical services businesses – Braemar Casbarian, Braemar Falconer, Braemar Steege, Braemar (incorporating The Salvage Association) and Braemar Wavespec/Wavespec.

The establishment of BTS will benefit both customers and shareholders by providing a pool of wider industry expertise; encouraging synergy between the business units and forming a wider global network of offices.

BTS’s component business units have all earned a worldwide reputation for excellence in their fields with significant overlapping of complementary skill sets:
• Braemar Steege as a loss adjuster in the global energy insurance markets
• Braemar Falconer as a provider of specialised marine and offshore consultancy services in Asia and Australia
• Braemar Casbarian as a provider of specialised marine and offshore engineering and consultancy services in North America and the Caribbean
• Wavespec as a well-established marine engineering consultancy business specialising in the design and construction of vessels carrying liquids in bulk
• Braemar (incorporating The Salvage Association) as the world leading multi-disciplinary marine surveying and technical consultancy arm providing services to the world’s shipping, offshore energy and insurance sectors.

BTS business units will continue to offer their specialist services but at the same time will be able to call upon the combined strength of the division to offer customers a ready-made solution for wider business issues and larger or more diversified contracts.

BTS will be headed up by two joint Managing Directors – Nigel Carpenter, the head of Braemar Steege, and Chan Yew Wah (Michael) who leads Braemar Falconer. With 385 employees, BTS will be the largest employer in the Braemar Shipping Services plc group.

The creation of BTS will involve re-branding of the business units as well as some corporate re-structuring, which is in progress and will be the subject of future announcements.

“We are creating a single entity which will help each of the BTS business units operate even more effectively in the markets they already serve while also provide a platform to offer division-wide solutions to clients in the marine or offshore sectors,” says Nigel Carpenter, BTS Managing Director.

“BTS will have the ability to conduct much more engineering in-house, and thereby better control costs. We will have the benefit of being able to tap into more office locations, where we will have survey capability on a first response basis for our clients which again gives us an opportunity to meet their needs more economically.”

Michael Chan adds: “Having a local presence also gives us access to local knowledge and culture which is very important. The geographical spread of this new group is impressive and a testament to the vibrancy and market expertise of the BTS group companies.”

Quentin Soanes, Executive Director of Braemar Shipping Services plc comments: “The establishment of BTS is part of Braemar’s continued plan to be a world leader in marine and energy services. The divisions within BTS are all pre-eminent in their fields and together offer even more comprehensive and integrated services to their clients throughout the global marine and energy sectors.”

Braemar Seascope says the tanker markets should not be surprised that the strategists who plan China’s energy requirements prioritise their national interest over the global shipping industry

The tanker markets are reported to have been spooked by the rumour that Chinese oil companies may order up to 80 VLCC newbuildings from Chinese yards. But should anyone really be overly surprised?

China’s priority throughout its urbanisation and industrialisation process has been to secure reliable, consistent and affordable supplies of raw materials and energy. To meet this end, it has developed trading companies, mining and resource companies, shipping and shipbuilding companies. This is a country run by a strategically minded government with their engineers holding detailed plans for development.

China has a stated policy that fifty per cent of its oil imports should arrive on Chinese controlled tonnage. According to Braemar Seascope analysis, almost 50 per cent of spot VLCCs discharging in China in H1 2011 were Chinese controlled (that also includes time chartered tonnage). But this does not mean that China will stop building VLCCs, after all its oil import requirements are undoubtedly going to grow.

China currently refines about 8.5m bpd of crude oil, at least 7.5m bpd of which is imported by sea. Braemar Seascope estimates that China is likely to increase refinery throughput to 11m bpd by 2015 and that around 15m bpd is achievable by 2018, which would put China on a roughly equal footing with the US for daily refinery throughput.

An extra 6.5m bpd of imports by 2018, depending on its source, would require about three modern VLCCs a day to meet seaborne import requirements, or about 1,100 VLCC shipments a year. If each VLCC can make nine round trips a year from the AG to the Chinese coast, about 120 VLCCs will be required between now and then. Merely to meet its 50 per cent Chinese-controlled imports target, Chinese ship owners will have to contract 60 new VLCCs for delivery in those coming years.

To ensure that there is sufficient supply of VLCC tonnage to maintain reliable, consistent and affordable supplies of crude oil, China may wish to have a surplus of tonnage, particularly if also incentivised to maintain its growing skilled workforce at the shipyards. So 80 VLCC contracts, although a little excessive, are feasible.

The Chinese shipbuilding industry has been upgrading its VLCC building capability with a view to competing with others and no doubt also in order to meet China’s own requirements. According to Braemar Seascope research, mainland Chinese companies own 39 VLCCS and currently have just eight on order. These can be supplemented in part by 24 Hong Kong–owned VLCCs, with another 17 on order. These combined fleets and orderbooks comprise only 13% of the global VLCC fleet and orderbook so there is clearly room for more Chinese-controlled tonnage.

Chinese shipyards delivered 21 VLCCs in 2010 and have delivered another 21 in 2011 to 1st September, with a further 10 due for delivery this year. In 2012, 29 are expected, followed by 23 slots currently filled for 2013. If China is capable of delivering 30 newbuilding VLCCs a year with current shipyard capacity, and if 20 a year of these are for Chinese buyers (who currently only have 8 VLCCs on order, remember), then realistically it will be 2014 before Chinese companies start to take delivery of the extra VLCCs required to maintain the 50 per cent policy, and 2017 or 2018 when the programme completes, which fits in with anticipated refinery development plans.

Scrapping Growth Could Be Good News

Braemar Seascope’s demolition brokers are working extra hard this year, which may be good news for everyone.

Dry cargo demand growth is running at strong levels due to the twin processes of industrialisation and urbanisation in emerging markets. Annual average demand growth between 2011 and 2015 is likely to match and may even exceed the annual 5.2% growth witnessed between 2004 and 2008 – the years of the superboom in dry cargo vessel earnings.

However, the massive amount of vessel ordering during and after the boom has led to the currently depressed freight market for dry bulk carriers. Bulker fleet gross growth (i.e. counting new deliveries but not scrapping) is likely to be in the order of 12% a year until 2013 as we add more than 3,000 newbuildings to the circa 8,100 ships that existed at the end of 2010.

But scrapping can make a difference in these markets. In order to bring net fleet growth (i.e. deliveries minus deletions) into line with demand growth expectations, every bulk carrier built before 1985 – nearly 1,500 ships – would have to be scrapped by the end of 2013. This would bring fleet growth down to an average 6.3% a year.

In other words, to return supply and demand growth to balance, the industry must scrap 12 bulk carriers every week for the next two years and four months without ordering any further bulkers for delivery before 2014.

The good news is that demolition at these levels is less outlandish than it may seem. According to the Braemar Seascope Demometer, 395 bulk carriers totalling 19.2 million dwt have been sold for demolition in 2011 up to 26th August, at a rate of 11.6 a week.

This amount of scrapping far exceeds previous records of 11.8m dwt in 1999 and 11.2m dwt in 2009. If scrapping continues at this rate for the balance of 2011, some 29.5m dwt will be removed from the bulk carrier fleet, offsetting the 85m dwt Braemar Seascope expects to be delivered in 2011.

Braemar Seascope Research Manager Mark Williams, says: “There’s a good chance that bulk carrier fleet growth can be kept down to 9% this year if these levels of scrapping keep up. We just have to hope that the global economy pulls out of the doldrums and that demand keeps up with expectations.”

BRAEMAR (INCORPORATING THE SALVAGE ASSOCIATION) IS SET TO CAPITALISE ON EXTENSIVE GLOBAL NETWORK

Press Release July 20th, 2011
Ref: 1155

Braemar (Incorporating The Salvage Association) is poised to expand its marine surveying and consultancy services following its recent buy-out by Braemar Shipping Services plc. The company is looking forward to taking advantage of the wider group’s extensive global office network to broaden its existing international expert marine surveying and consultancy service.

The Association, which boasts a maritime history of more than 150 years, plans to expand its world renowned specialist maritime services through its close association with complementary businesses in the Braemar Group, while maintaining its market-leading range of marine surveying and technical consultancy operations.

Nigel Clark, Managing Director of Braemar (incorporating The Salvage Association), said: “The Salvage Association is the standard bearer for the provision of damage survey reports and we are rightly proud of this. While this work remains our core business, we also provide a broad range of other technical and in-depth expert services to the maritime industry and we are excited to have this opportunity to expand our capabilities even further.

“We plan to continue the great work of the Salvage Association as well as growing our marine consultancy businesses and the backing of Braemar’s extensive network of global offices will enable us to further extend its worldwide services,” he said, highlighting India and South America as key areas for expansion.

Braemar (incorporating The Salvage Association) is proud to employ highly qualified and experienced marine surveyors, some of whom have been with The Salvage Association for more than 25 years. All have the expert level of capability that The Salvage Association has always required. In addition, the company boasts marine consultants able to offer a broad range of expert services to insurers, P&I Clubs, shipowners, ship charterers and marine lawyers.
—ends—

Notes to Editors:
The business and assets of the BMT Marine & Offshore Surveys, which incorporates The Salvage Association and Murray Fenton, were recently acquired by Braemar Shipping Services Plc, a leading international provider of shipbroking, consultancy, technical, logistics and other services to the shipping and energy industries.

For Further Information, Please Contact:
Sean Moloney, Elaborate Communications +44 (0) 1296 682051 / 682124
Email: smoloney@elabor8.co.uk

icon-pdf [download id=”315″]

Braemar Market Insight: Container Fleet Supply

[download id=”314″]2012 looks set to be the biggest year for containership newbuilding deliveries in history, in terms of TEU capacity entering the cellular fleet. According to Braemar Seascope’s latest Containership Fleet Statistics, boxship deliveries in 2012 are expected to reach 1.55m TEU – beating the previous record of 1.52m TEU achieved during 2007. Braemar Seascope expects a cellular fleet expansion in the region of 9.5% for 2012, increasing the available capacity to 16.8m TEU.

Of the 230 ships due for delivery next year, 59 have a nominal container capacity of 10,000 TEU or more. This will introduce an additional 0.8m TEU to this segment. Fleet growth for the 10,000 TEU plus size bracket is expected to reach 70% year on year for 2011 and a further 57% in 2012. Bearing in mind that the vast majority of ultra-large containerships are currently deployed on Asia – Europe services, next year’s delivery influx would be sufficient tonnage to create another five loops deploying ten x 13,000 TEU vessels.

For vessels up to and including 5,100 TEU capacity, it is a very different story: the lower level of investment in newbuilding projects is apparent as growth is expected to reach only 2.9% this year before hitting 3.0% in 2012.

Since January 2010, owners have ordered 1.7m TEU capacity of boxships with a capacity of 5,100 TEU or more compared with 0.4m TEU of smaller ships (below 5,100 TEU).
Containerships of 10,000 TEU or more comprise 49% of the global orderbook by capacity whereas containerships up to 5,100 TEU represent only 20% of the global orderbook. Since the KG market has largely exited the newbuilding arena, investment in smaller containerships has been lacklustre. However, Braemar expects renewed interested in feedermax tonnage once the current cycle of investment in post panamax ships has waned.icon-pdf

BRAEMAR MARKET INSIGHT: TANKER FLEET SUPPLY

PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release 7 July 2011
Ref: 1050

Despite record crude oil liftings from the Middle East and anticipated demand growth of around 2% for 2011, there remains a persistent oversupply of VLCC tonnage, according to analysis by Braemar Shipping Services.

However, it may come as some relief to know that the 47 VLCC deliveries scheduled for the first half of 2011 did not all enter the market on time.

In both Q1 and Q2 this year, over 20 VLCC deliveries were inked in at the rate of more than one every week. In the event, Braemar recorded fewer than 20 VLCC deliveries in both quarters of 2011 to date: 19 in Q1 and 15 in Q2.

On 1st July, the VLCC fleet was 559 ships including 22 non-double hull units, with 150 ships in the orderbook.

In deadweight capacity, the VLCC fleet has grown by 5.6% this year, from 160.9m dwt on 1st January 2011, to 169.9m dwt on 1st July. According to Braemar, it seems likely that further slippage from delivery schedules will happen in the coming quarters, even from its revised delivery view as per the table.

—ends—

For Further Information Please Contact:
Elaborate Communications
Sean Moloney
Debra Munford Tel: +44 (0)1296 682051/Mob: +44 (0)7711 142439
Tel +44 (0) 1296 682356

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Braemar Market Insight; Dry Bulk Fleet Supply

This year is already a record year for dry bulk carrier demolition.
• In Jan-May 2011, 13.6m Dwt of bulkers have been scrapped, including 7.1m Dwt of Capesize (over 120k Dwt) bulkers.
• If scrapping continues at this pace for the balance of 2011, it could reach 32.6m Dwt, more than three times the previous record set in 2009.

Demolition has previously peaked in years of credit crunches:
• In 2009, 11.7m Dwt of bulkers were scrapped following the global credit crunch. Scrapping was high even though prices per LDT were down on average for the year to around USD 260 compared to an average of around USD 370 in 2007.
• In 1998 11.2m Dwt of bulkers were scrapped following the Asian financial crisis. Scrapping was high even though prices per LDT were only around USD 140, having fallen from USD 180 in 1997.

High prices for scrap steel have undoubtedly encouraged scrapping – in some cases, Capesize bulkers have been sold for scrap for over USD 10m this year. Average Capesize daily earnings in 2010 to date, based on Baltic Exchange data, have been around USD 8,300. At that rate, it would take over three years to earn the USD 10m achievable for scrapping a ship. Banks may be reluctant to extend credit facilities to cover SS/DD costs when earnings are so meagre, further encouraging owners to scrap ships approaching dry docking dates.
The current rate of demolition might offer a ray of hope in the freight markets, but this year deliveries are already outweighing scrapping by almost three to one. In Jan-May, 36.3m Dwt of bulkers delivered, including 20.5m Dwt of bulkers over 85k Dwt. If deliveries continue at this rate for the balance of 2011, they will total over 87m Dwt for the year.

For ships over 85k Dwt, fleet growth in Jan-May 2011 has been 6%. Panamax fleet (60-85k Dwt and Panamax beam) growth has been 2%. Combined Supramax and Handymax fleet growth has been 6%. Handysize growth has been only 2%, but within that fleet the small handy (below 25k Dwt) segment has shrunk by 4%.

Annualised bulk carrier fleet growth based on Jan-May deliveries and demolition will be in the order of 55m Dwt or 10%. It seems likely that oversupply will still be on the agenda in January 2012.

(For figures – see attached pdf)

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Help – One Of Our Ships Is Missing!

That’s NOT a phrase you will hear from shipping companies operating the worldwide vessel monitoring software ShipTrak!! Wherever your vessel is, with ShipTrak’s unique software, you’ll be in the know.

Developed in-house at Cory Brothers, by their own programmers, ShipTrak was designed to help monitor the company’s own vessel operations across the world. Now Cory Brothers has made the software available to its customers to ensure the vital information and updates they need are at their fingertips too, 24/7.

ShipTrak is a web-based application that holds every detail of vessel operation. Ship operators can log on wherever in the world they are – from the office, from a hotel lobby, from the home pc, anywhere they find themselves right across the world – and find all the information they need.

Using ShipTrak also means less paperwork, fewer emails and huge time-savings all round. So rather than receiving a torrent of updates in various formats and from different sources, you simply log on to the ShipTrak website. Not only can you access information in real time, but you can easily create reports and view essential financial data – everything from cost estimates to purchase invoices and disbursement accounts, scanned documents can be e-mailed direct to the system for viewing, printing or forwarding.

ShipTrak has been specifically designed and tailor-made with its users in mind, to provide a very detailed log of events. At any stage, for any number of vessel operations, you can compare projections with invoices, schedules and survey costs. Being based on Java software, ShipTrak interfaces and can exchange data with other shipping-based systems and common office software programs.

Kevin Gorman, Cory Brothers Shipping Agency Managing Director, says: “We, and our shipping partners, use ShipTrak every single minute of the day and we find it an essential tool. It is “platform independent” so you can use ShipTrak on your PC, Mac, mobile phone – anywhere you have an internet connection and a web browser! It can analyse any type of data, whether it be operational or financial, and thereby create all types of reports for our clients which is extremely beneficial financially and commercially. In addition, our in-house designers are working continuously to create useful new features and refinements too and provide support and advice to users.”

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Cory Brothers Begins Agency Operations In Gibraltar

Cory Brothers Shipping Agency is pleased to announce it is now able to offer Shipping Agency services in Gibraltar in conjunction with its partner, the Gibunco Ship Agency, part of the Gibunco Group.

Cory Brothers, together with Gibunco Ship Agency, brings a wealth of experience to Gibraltar in Port Agency, Bunker Agency, STS Operations and Logistical solutions. Operating in the Port of Gibraltar adds strategically to Cory Brothers’ continuing global expansion, complimenting the companies’ Singapore office and Far Eastern activities as well as its presence in Europe and South America.

Announcing the expansion, Cory Brothers Shipping Agency Managing Director, Kevin Gorman, said: “This move demonstrates that Cory Brothers is moving forwards into areas where we can add value to our international services for existing and new customers. Combined with our Ship Trak system and our market intelligence this consolidates first class agency services which are provided by our professional agency personnel who have a wealth of experience in this field.”

Gibunco Ship Agency Commercial Manager, Ivan Vallejo, added: “We are delighted to welcome Cory Brothers to Gibraltar as our partners. They have an established history in Ships Agency stretching back over 160 years, which adds to Gibunco’s own 50-year track record in Gibraltar.

Together we will bring many benefits with our vast experience in agency and our bunkering activities around the Globe.”
—ends—
Notes to Editors:
The Gibraltar Office can be contacted at:
Cory Brothers Shipping Agency Ltd (UK)
Nr. 4 Jetty, North Mole
GX111AA Gibraltar
Tel: + 350 200 46901
Fax + 350 200 63489
Out of hours: + 350 200 50490
Email: Corygib@Cory.Gi

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Braemar Seascope Reports Ship Delivery Underperformance In 2010, Expects Similar Out-Turn In 2011

Industry concerns over the glut of newbuilding deliveries last year may have been overplayed as the three major shipping market segments – dry bulk, container and tanker – avoided significant oversupply, according to figures released by Braemar Seascope.

The London-listed shipbroker compared the orderbook at the end of 2009 with the full-year delivery statistics for 2010. The gap between what was anticipated to deliver and what actually delivered offers an insight into the development of the shipbuilding and freight markets.

The difference between the orderbook schedule and actuality in 2010 was a function of technical underperformance at certain shipyards and the fall-out of the credit crunch. Some orders were cancelled while, in many cases, ship owners renegotiated delivery dates.

Dry bulk deliveries were scheduled to total 1,400 ships of 113 million dwt last year. In the event, 950 ships of 78 m dwt were delivered: a shortfall of 31%. Braemar Seascope had anticipated the delivery of some 270 Capesize bulkers (over 120,000 dwt) in 2010. In the event, 195 delivered – still one nearly every working day of the year but 27% less than the schedule at the start of 2010.

The orderbook at start of 2011 suggests that 262 Capesize ships could deliver this year, though Braemar Seascope’s London-based Research Manager Mark Williams says: “It’s quite likely that the freight market outlook will encourage further delays in deliveries. It will not surprise us if as many as a quarter of this year’s anticipated deliveries don’t turn up by December this year. The delays may prolong the downturn but equally they could allow demand to catch up with supply during the recovery from the 2009 recession.”

Braemar Seascope expected crude oil and oil products tanker deliveries to total nearly 400 ships last year, totalling 51m dwt. In the event, 290 ships delivered, totalling 37m dwt, representing a shortfall of 27%. The biggest shortfall among crude tankers was in the Suezmax segment, where 36 out of an expected 57 ships delivered, a shortfall of 37%. In the smaller size, only 9 out of the 22 handy tankers destined for international trading were actually delivered in 2010. According to Mark Williams, these figures exclude Chinese built ships intended for Chinese domestic trades.
more follows . . . /2

/2 BRAEMAR SEASCOPE REPORTS SHIP DELIVERY UNDERPERFORMANCE

In 2011, almost 80 VLCC deliveries are scheduled, but after a 26% shortfall in 2010 deliveries, the segment might escape the worst effects of oversupply if demand continues to hold up in the face of $90+ per barrel oil. Braemar Seascope, one of the world’s leading chartering brokers, anticipates that not all the 60 Suezmaxes that are due for delivery in 2011 will enter the market on time, helping to constrain the oversupply in this sector of the market.

The fast-growing containership fleet was braced for more than 350 new ships in 2010, of which 80 were over 7,500 teu. In fact, 290 ships of 1.35m teu delivered compared to expectations of 20% more capacity – 1.7m teu. Braemar Seascope points out that these raw supply figures do not account for slow steaming, lay-up and other forms of supply management which continue to support freight rates in the boxship sector. Williams notes that after a 27% shortfall in the number of expected 2010 deliveries, we can expect more underperformance this year, when 222 boxships of 1.47m teu are due for delivery. “That could make the difference between red and black ink in the accounts for many owners,” concludes Williams.

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